Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2008, volume 9
issue 1, 182-192
In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly
The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted
from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the
realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates
an average growth rate of almost 6%.
forecasting methods, DSGE models, Bayesian methods, real business cycles.