by Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2005, volume 6 issue 2,
The paper analyzes the circumstances in which the combination of forecasts yields better results than the use of the forecasts separately. We propose a method of combining forecasts based on their efficiency on long and medium-term using as benchmarks the combination of forecasts based on regression and the combination of forecasts based on the “hits and misses” criterion proposed by Wenzel (2001). We suggest a method for the calculation of the coefficient of the Wenzel method and we use the method to identify the efficiency of the forecasts on medium and long-term.
Keywords: combination of forecasts, long-term and medium-term efficiency, mean and standard deviation
JEL Classification: C13, C49, C51, C52, C53