MACROMODEL ESTIMATIONS FOR THE UPDATED 2004 VERSION OF THE ROMANIAN PRE-ACCESSION ECONOMIC PROGRAMME - WORKING PAPER*
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting,
2005, volume 6 issue 1, 5-29
The structure of the macromodel used for simulations is presented in Introduction and in the Appendix. For the period 2005-2008, a Main Scenario was elaborated. It embodies performances envisaged in “Romania’s Medium-Term Economic Strategy” (2000) and in the 2001-2004 versions of the “Pre-Accession Economic Programme”. Two possible deviations are also examined: the first involves a more relaxed income policy (including higher public budget deficits) and the second is built on a more accentuated real apreciation of the ROL. Previous simulations (for 2002-2005, 2003-2007, and 2004-2010) have operated with similar forecasting schemes (Dobrescu 2002a, 2002c, 2003, 2004). However, the present estimations slightly modify the corresponding indicators due to:
· the updating of statistical series;
· the changes in macroeconomic policies and in the international environment;
· the upgrading of some computational hypotheses.
(*PHARE programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission for Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies).
macromodel, simulations, forecasting.
C23, C22, C51